In mid-February the California Economic Forecast Project conducted a 2017 Economic Review at Santa Barbara’s Fess Parker Resort. During the conference predictions were laid out for years 2017 through 2021 with regard to South Santa Barbara County’s housing market. It was pointed out that relying on historical performance to predict future direction is ineffective in today’s fast-moving economy, especially in view of regime changes and global influences. Demand for homes by consumers, supply of new homes, and statewide economic growth are all factors that the project says are considered in its forecasting.
With regard to the 21 principal counties in California the project has unanimously forecasted that all of the markets will have home price gains over the next 5 years. Santa Barbara County is picked to lead the pace with Southern Santa Barbara County price gains driven by a continued lack of inventory and new housing production. Sales volumes on the other hand are predicted to increase only marginally in Santa Barbara’s South County due to high prices pushing some buyers out of the market. The economic project’s home price percentage change forecasts for South Santa Barbara County are as follows: 6.7% increase for 2017, 5.7% increase for 2018, 5.2% for 2019, 4.7% increase for 2020 and 4.8% increase for 2021. Also, sales volume over this same five-year period is expected to slowly increase by around 1.5%.
For the first quarter of 2017 South Santa Barbara County’s median home price has remained unchanged, and sold volume has increased 12%. If the Economic Forecast Project’s predictions come true we should see a steady increase in prices during the rest of the year, and a decrease in number of sales. I look forward to keeping you in touch with the most current market activity and to assisting you with any of your real estate needs. Your inquiries are much appreciated.